Tajikistan Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission - August 2011 

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Mission Highlights

• Wheat production for marketing year 2011/12 is estimated at 679,000 tonnes, 25% below last year's estimates and 8% below the average of the past 4 years.

• Wheat imports amounting to 960,000 tonnes are required in marketing year 2011/12 (July/June) for a population of 7.851 million people. According to FAO-Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS) statistics, some 900,000 tonnes of wheat grain and wheat flour has been imported to Tajikistan in 2011, mainly from Kazakhstan, Ukraine and Russia.

• The wheat import requirements are 7% more than in the previous marketing year 2010/11. In 2010/11 market year around 900,000 of wheat grain and wheat flour were imported that together with good harvest year - according to MoA and State Statistics Agency, national production in 2010 was estimated around 900,000 tonnes - there was a surplus in the stocks. 

• Wheat crop reduced performance connects to a) no autumnal rain, and erratic spring rains that finished early in most districts and b) a disrupted electricity supply to irrigation water pump schemes until late April.

• Barley production 2010/11 is estimated at 83,000 tonnes, 24% below last year's estimates due to similar factors affecting wheat performance.

• Rice and maize harvests are estimated to be 67,000 tonnes of paddy rice and 98,000 tonnes of maize grain respectively. With the inclusion of summer crop forecasts for crops not yet mature, marked increases on previous year's single season estimates.

• Potato production is estimated at 862,000 tonnes, 27% greater than last year from a 23% increase in area.

• Cotton area increased by 20% compared to last year due to an almost 100 percent rise in cotton prices in 2010, reversing the downward trend noted in 2009. However, in the meantime, international cotton prices have reached back the level of 2009 or 50% below 2010, following very good harvest expected by cotton producing countries.

• Increased prices in all commodities, with no apparent seasonal fluctuation, reflect an inflation of 10+ % that is expected to increase in the coming year, which may reduce consumption. However, between June and August wheat and wheat flour prices were down by 15-20% but remained 30% higher compared to August 2010. Meat, sugar and cooking oil stayed at the same rate as in early 2011. Fruit and vegetable as well as potato reduced drastically from June and rice expected to drop too due to increase in national production.

• The incidence of undernorishment in the overall population, as measured by inadequate caloric intake (1830 kcal/person/day), is high at 17%.

• A greater proportion of the urban population is food insecure, mainly due to high food prices and worsening terms of trade between wage rates and food prices.

• With record remittances, as reported by the International Monetary Fund and Government sources, the situation in rural areas would be much better.

• Poor cereal harvests are likely to exacerbate the degree of severity in food insecure households, increasing the need of targeted support estimated at around 50,000 tonnes of wheat equivalent.

• The following areas zones are to be considered priority for food assistance, based on the combination of food caloric intake, dietary diversity and incidence of wheat production shocks: Jirgatol, Tojikobod, Rasht, Panjakent, Khuroson, Yovon and Jomi.

• While cereal production in Tajikistan dropped by 20% compared to 2010, Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan reported excellent production at the end of the harvest season. Kazakhstan, for instance reported an almost 60% increase in its cereal production much of which in wheat production. It is worth noting that around 22% of Kazakhstan's wheat is exported to Tajikistan annually. Thus an increase in wheat production in Kazakhstan indicates easing of wheat and wheat products prices for Tajikistan during 2011/2012 marketing year.