Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to Sudan, December 2011

Download the full report here  CFSAM Sudan 2011

Mission highlights:

• The cereal harvest for the Republic of the Sudan is estimated at 2.773 million tonnes, comprising 2.089 million tonnes of sorghum, 0.365 million tonnes of pearl millet and a low forecast for a wheat harvest in March-April 2010, only partially planted during the assessment, of 0.324 million tonnes plus small amounts of maize and rice.

• Cereal production is less than half last year’s estimate of an extremely good harvest due to poor rains leading to a reduced area harvested and lower yields in the rainfed sector.

• Carryover stocks from 2010/11 amount to 400 000 tonnes of mostly sorghum in the Strategic Reserve, plus unknown quantities in private stores.

• Sorghum domestic requirements will have to be met by 0.98 million tonnes of imports if stocks are allowed to be drawn down to  200 000 tonnes.

• Wheat and rice requirements will have to be met by normal levels of commercial imports estimated at 1.55 million tonnes and 49 000 tonnes, respectively.

• Prices for sorghum and millet have risen rapidly across the country with feterita, the cheapest variety of sorghum reaching 300 US$ per tonne in November in most wholesale markets from around 220 US$ in August; and, millet noted at 550-600 US$ per tonne from 400-450 US$ per tonne in August. Both commodities are expected to continue to rise in price.

• Early migrations, grazing of crops, failing livestock routes and clashes between displaced pastoralists have been noted due to poorer pastures in the northern ranges and uncertain access to southern pastures. The price of fodder has escalated in the towns.

• Livestock body condition is good in all areas despite apparent lack of fodder. No outbreaks of diseases are noted and the export trade for fat-stock is buoyant with prices firm or rising for sheep, cattle, camels and goats.

• Cotton production appears likely to increase with a production estimate increase to 288 000 tonnes from 71 000 tonnes due to increased area in the irrigation schemes at the expense of sorghum.

• Oil seed production has fallen due to a drop in sesame production from 363 000 tonnes to 193 000 tonnes; a drop in sunflower seeds from 122 000 tonnes to 90 000 tonnes. Groundnut production holding up at 1.0 million tonnes this year compared to 1.1 million tonnes last year but is still 100 000 tonnes down.

• Increased imports of cereals will be needed at a time when GDP growth rate is -6% following secession; foreign exchange earnings have been cut and there is a fiscal deficit. Even when GDP was +6% and above, many people were food insecure as a result of conflict, displacement, poor infrastructure, economic isolation and weak marketing systems. The current situation means that many more will face such situation due to induced food insecurity.

• Inadequate domestic production will result in a cereal deficit during the marketing year 2011/ 2012 of -2.86 million tonnes of which 0.96 million tonnes is sorghum, 0.25 million tonnes is millet. About 1.59 million tonnes is wheat and 49 000 tonnes is rice. Such imports anticipate a drawdown of 200 000 tonnes of sorghum from the Strategic Reserve and 100 000 tonnes of wheat from trader stocks.