Sudan (Northern States) Crop Assessment 2009/2010

AA International Ltd trained MoA and FAO-SIFSIA crops and food supply assessors prior to an Assessment conducted in Nov/ Dec 2009. The Assessment Mission Report was written by AA International's Director, Ian Robinson, from the information obtained by the trained teams and from reports prepared by FAO-SIFSIA, Khartoum. The Mission Highlights are given here and access to the approved version of the report may be found in the Crop and Food Supply Assessments Section of the website:

·          The cereal harvest for the northern states of the Republic of the Sudan is estimated at 3.13 million tonnes, comprising 2.34 million tonnes of sorghum, 0.44 million tonnes of pearl millet and a low forecast for a wheat harvest in April/May 2010 (only partially planted during the assessment) of 0.34 million tonnes.
·          The estimated level of production is 33 percent lower than last year’s estimate and 30 percent lower than the average estimate for the previous five years. This is a result of poor rainfall distribution in the main rainfed production areas, inadequate rainfall in the highlands of Ethiopia and under-performance in the Sudanese irrigation sector.
·          Carryover stocks from 2008/09 are thought to be low. With the exception of imported wheat stocks at 578 000 tonnes (strategic reserve and wheat flour industries), the quantity of cereals held in private stores is not known.
·          Assuming limited stocks, commercial import requirements are assessed at 2.06 million tonnes. The required 1.11 million tonnes of wheat is within the recent annual norm for commercial imports, while the requirement for 776 000 tonnes of sorghum and 119 000 tonnes of millet is notably higher than last year when surplus stocks were available for both small grains. Small imports of rice and maize will also be required.
·          Prices for sorghum have been very high, remaining at pre-harvest levels in both deficit and surplus producing areas. This signals price increases and deteriorating terms of trade for livestock owners in future months.
·          Livestock conditions are good in most areas as a result of heavy mid-season rains and the use of failed crops for grazing. However, the outlook is alarming in terms of dry season grazing and water supply, especially in the eastern states. The quick depletion of pasture and water sources combined with the high price of animal feed will force small-scale owners to release their livestock quickly and at relatively low prices.
·          The ever-decreasing role of cotton production in the economy is exacerbated by a 74 percent decline in area sown (82 percent below the five-year average) owing to changes in irrigation policy, resulting in an all-time low production of 44 000 tonnes.
·          Oil seed production is estimated to have fallen below the five-year average by around 19 percent for groundnuts (549 000 tonnes from 1.1 million hectares [ha] harvested), 20 percent for sesame (248 000 tonnes from 1.25 million ha harvested) and 10 percent for sunflower seed (42 000 tonnes from 113 000 ha harvested). 
·          Oil export earnings have fallen owing to global price changes exerting pressure on stretched foreign exchange reserves.
·          Despite an average Gross Domestic Product of USD1 393 per person and strong economic growth over the past ten years, many people remain food insecure as a result of conflict, displacement, poor infrastructure, weak marketing systems and economic isolation. Given the poor harvest and expected high prices of the basic staple, sorghum, an estimated 5.4 million people in the  Sudan will need varying degrees of food assistance in 2010.
·          There is a pressing need for monitoring, follow up and coordination of activities by different actors, given that the food security situation is expected to become increasingly serious, particularly during the hunger period from June to September 2010.
·          Preparedness and pre-positioning actions will be crucial, especially in view of the April 2010 election.